MI2 Chart Point: Bonds – Hanging by a Thread 

Since the start of the year, as our work started to flag the growing odds of a US recession, we have suggested fixed income steepeners. First, we took a stab at the front end, which, in a classic example of ‘it’s better to be lucky than smart’ and courtesy of SVB, was a slam dunk. Then, as a play on the higher for-longer element of the Fed’s opportunistic disinflationary policy stance, we went further down the curve in 5s30s.