MI2 Research Portal

Latest Publications

  • May 30, 2023

MI2 Chart Point: Bonds – Hanging by a Thread 

Since the start of the year, as our work started to flag the growing odds of a US recession, we have suggested fixed income...

  • May 23, 2023

US Regional Banks: The Vicious Circle

  • Few regional banks hedged rate risk, so most need to raise fresh capital
  • At current bank valuations, that requires massive equity dilution
  • Declining...

  • May 8, 2023

MI2 Chart Point: Continued Credit Tightening

Even before the regional banking crisis, one of the recessionary headwinds facing the US economy was tightening credit. In that regard, few data points...

  • May 4, 2023

MI2 China Update: Xi to Biden: “If you force my hand, there will be war”

  • Xi to Biden: “If you force my hand, there will be war”
  • Yellen says National Security eclipses business interests. Sullivan reiterates and clarifies
  • US imports from...

  • June 1, 2023

Japan Update: Quarterly Corporate Report Shows Record Recurring Profit

• Quarterly Corporate Report Shows Record Recurring Profit • Keidanren Chief Calls for More Wage Hikes • Weak Semiconductor Production Equipment Exports Dent April Production • Asian...

  • May 30, 2023

Japan Update: MoF, FSA, BoJ Meet to Discuss Weak Yen, Ueda Downplays Policy Change

• MoF, FSA, BoJ Meet to Discuss Weak Yen, Ueda Downplays Policy Change • May Tokyo Core CPI Rises 3.2% • April Unemployment Drops to 2.6% • Tax Agency Rules...

  • May 24, 2023

Japan Update: FY 2022 Real Wages Fall 1.8%

  • FY 2022 Real Wages Fall 1.8%
  • Megabanks’ Unrealized Loss on Overseas Bonds Declined 40%
  • US Navy Will Use Japan Private Sector Shipyards for...

  • May 22, 2023

Japan Update: April Core CPI Rises 3.4%

• April Core CPI Rises 3.4% • BoJ’s Ueda Warns Against Raising Rates Too Soon • Keidanren: Large Companies Raised Wages by 3.91% • Nikkei 225 Index...

  • June 2, 2023

Macro Insiders: Flash Update from Raoul Pal

Raoul wants to add to his Exponential Age bets...

  • June 2, 2023

Macro Insiders: In Focus Trade Portfolio – June 2023

This publication is your ‘go-to’ to view a summary of trade recommendations proposed by Julian and Raoul in their respective In Focus pieces. Each...

  • May 30, 2023

Macro Insiders: Deep Dive from Julian – Small Banks, Big Problems

Regional banks are short of capital. Caught out by rising rates, assets (especially long duration fixed income) fell. Shareholder dilution beckons but equity valuations...

  • May 22, 2023

Macro Insiders: In Focus from Raoul – Liquidity: The Key Driver of Global Markets

In this month’s In Focus Report, Raoul dives deep into liquidity: why it's the ultimate driver of global markets and how it can help...

  • June 1, 2023

Thoughts From The Divide – Slowing the Behemoth

This week we highlight some amusing and bemusing dynamics observed in various sectors of the economy. Commercial real estate increasingly justifies the dumpster fire...

  • May 25, 2023

Thoughts From The Divide – Adjusting Expectations

We at MI2 often find ourselves quoting Mark Twain (see here, here and here). In our collective experience, his “It ain’t what you don’t...

  • May 19, 2023

Thoughts From The Divide -Fires

“The cash flow… was insufficient to continue servicing its indebtedness”  For the last several weeks, we’ve been cheekily referring to real estate as a...

  • May 11, 2023

Thoughts From The Divide: Hazardous

“If the economy sinks into a recession as many expect, owners will be whipsawed again” The Fed’s SLOOS lending report, now with the post-SVB...

  • May 27, 2023

The Next Big Trade – Tom Caddick: UK Commercial Real Estate is Undervalued

Harry Melandri of MI2 Partners welcomes Tom Caddick, managing director at Nedgroup Investments, to explore why UK commercial real estate is an overlooked and...

  • May 5, 2023

Public Invest: How Banking Crisis Could Force a Recession

Julian Brigden, Co-founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, discusses a potential credit crunch, the odds of an impending recession, the Federal Reserve's evolving monetary...

  • April 20, 2023

TGH Live Trading Feat: Julian Brigden

In this live stream, Julian is asked how much lower he thinks the dollar can go. Julian believes 20-30% over time as money flows...

  • April 19, 2023

On The Margin Podcast: Progressing Through The Credit Tightening Cycle

Julian Brigden joins the show to discuss the process of tightening credit in the banking system and what it will mean for the economy...