MI2 Research Portal

Latest Publications

MI2 Chart Point: Peak Dollar? (5/24/2022) – As you know, we are structural dollar bears because we believe that ultimately when the next crisis brings the Fed face to face with the inability to support stocks, bonds, and the currency, they will logically sacrifice the dollar (“The Dollar: Triffin’s Dilemma and the…
Ask Me Anything & Summary of Views with Julian Brigden – May 2022 (5/12/2022) – Please see our latest Ask Me Anything session, where Julian starts off with a quick presentation of our current views and then answers our client’s questions. It runs for approximately one hour.
MI2 Chart Point: Four Inflation Charts (5/10/2022) – With risk assets in freefall, this week’s CPI data is more critical than ever. Expectations are for a fall in both the headline and core rates, which conveniently fits the current and pervasive narrative that prices are peaking. While such an outcome would undoubtedly be…

Japan Update: Japan to Reopen to Foreign Tourists in June (5/25/2022) –
- Japan to Reopen to Foreign Tourists in June
- Reserves Subject to Negative Rates Hit Record
- LDP Wants to Use Nuclear Power “To Greatest Extent Possible”
- Damaged Water Intake Partially Reopened
- PVC Exports Down as China Lockdown Bites
- Tokyo Steel (5423) to Start Steel Coil Mass Production in 2025
Japan Update: FY 2022 Wage Increase Largest Since FY 2018, Summer Bonuses Higher (5/23/2022) –
- FY 2022 Wage Increase Largest Since FY 2018, Summer Bonuses Higher
- Broken Intake Facility Disrupts Water Supplies to Nagoya Factories, Farms
Japan Update: Nationwide Core CPI Tops 2% (5/20/2022) –
- Nationwide Core CPI Tops 2%
- Prime Minister Calls for Stable Yen
- April Trade Deficit as Imports Set Record
- Losses On Overseas Bonds Lead to Selling of Domestic Corporate Debt

Macro Insiders: In Focus from Julian-Back to the Future (5/20/2022) – Risk Parity and VaR-based products are ubiquitous, leaning on negative correlation assumptions. The last two weeks have challenged diversification as correlations have headed into positive territory across a range of assets.
Macro Insiders: Insider Talks with Julian and Raoul – May 2022 (5/19/2022) – In this month’s Insider Talks, Raoul Pal and Julian Brigden went live on May 17th to discuss their recent thoughts and answer questions from Real Vision Pro members. Moderated by Harry Melandri of MI2 Partners.
Macro Insiders: Flash Update from Raoul (5/17/2022) – Raoul wants to take some profits in carbon…

Thoughts From The Divide – (Un)Intended Consequences (5/19/2022) – “Will… include some pain” In a relatively brief interview from last week, Jerome Powell made a number of statements that seemed to put markets and market spectators on edge. Though he successfully dodged a question on the prospect of a…
Thoughts From The Divide – Aggravation (5/12/2022) – “Aggravating factors” This week’s title is apropos of both the world of crypto (where a “stablecoin” losing its peg has had a “cascading effect”) and the equity market (where declining stocks have sent CNN’s Fear & Greed Index to 52-week lows). However,…
Thoughts From The Divide – Expeditiously (5/5/2022) – “As quickly and effectively as we can” If “transitory” was the previous buzzword du jour, the new term appears to be “expeditiously”, which Chairman Powell used six times during Wednesday’s post-FOMC presser in the context of both raising rates and bringing down…