MI2 Research Portal

Latest Publications

  • MI2 Chart Point: NFP – Once More Unto the Breach (8/5/2021) Comment While forecasting NFP seems trivial compared to Henry V’s assault on the battlements, there are times that it is a rather daunting prospect! Indeed, just last month, our work suggested that the number would disappoint, only to get blown away by a whopping print of 850k (“MI2 Chart Point: NFP – It Takes Two to Tango” 1st July)! However, in yet another example of Wall Street’s love of straight-line extrapolation, this week’s forecast is for 870k, with the whisper…
  • MI2’s 3Q Global Macro Presentation (8/4/2021) Dear Clients, Please find our latest full-length video release. It runs for approximately an hour.
  • Research Catch Up: July 2021 (7/30/2021) Monthly Summary: The rally in fixed income has driven a scramble to fit a narrative to the price action However, our work still suggests an extremely robust US economy with lots of inflation The only areas of concern are the supply of employees and housing where demand is falling Markets are boring and frustrating. But we worry about the DAX and the CNY

  • Macro Insiders – In Focus Trade Portfolio (8/2/2021) This publication is your ‘go-to’ to view a summary of trade recommendations proposed by Julian and Raoul in their respective In Focus pieces. Each month, we update the performance of these trade recommendations, adding and removing trades as per the advice given in any In Focus publication or Flash Update.
  • Macro Insiders: Deep Dive from Julian – US Housing: Pump & Dump? (7/28/2021)

    According to the National Association of Homebuilders, housing’s contribution to GDP generally averages in the 15-18% range and occurs in two basic ways: Residential Investment (3-5%) and Consumption Spending on Housing Services (12-13%) which includes rents and utilities paid by renters and the statistical fiction that is the owners’ imputed rents. This last one is going to be front and centre of the inflation debate over the next six to nine months as owner equivalent rent is incorporated into CPI. So now is a good time to familiarise yourself with it as we watch the Fed’s intellectual acrobatics to fob us off with their transitory inflation dogma.

  • Macro Insiders: In Focus from Raoul – The Macro Shift is Underway (7/19/2021)

    Raoul has been writing about the impending slowdown for a few months. It is now upon us, and opportunity lies ahead…

  • Thoughts From The Divide – The Driver’s Seat (7/30/2021) Compared to some of the wilder FOMC meetings we’ve seen in the recent past, this week’s was relatively tame. Yes, Powell admitted that inflation was running “well above” the two percent target but said, “we have some ground to cover on the labor market side”. Additionally, while there were “questions around MBS” amid the hot […]
  • Thoughts From The Divide – Surveying Surveys (7/23/2021) “Activity surged” The latest Regional Fed surveys have continued the recent “business as usual” of elevated activity, price pressures, and strong employment readings. The Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey showed strong but less aggressive growth. Respondents’ feedback “continued to suggest ongoing growth in the region’s manufacturing sector”, and “general activity, new orders, and shipments […]
  • Thoughts From The Divide – Housing Relief? (7/9/2021) “Still very much tilted in sellers’ favor”  In last week’s TFTD we took a look at housing, where the latest CoreLogic Case Shiller Home Price report was making headlines with the largest gains in certain metrics in over 30 years. This data did, however, come with the caveat that it was from April and perhaps somewhat behind […]