MI2 Research Portal

Latest Publications

  • MI2 China Update: PBOC Cuts Cash RRR, Releasing $188 Billion of Liquidity (12/6/2021) PBOC Cuts Cash Reserve Requirement Ratio, Releasing $188 Billion of Liquidity  Evergrande dissolves some units of online marketplace Evergrande Group Chairman Hui Ka Yan injected more than 7bn yuan China Won’t Bail Out Property Firms, Partial Easing at best Chinese Developers Kaisa, Aoyuan Face Growing Debt Challenges Didi Global Plans to Delist From New York Stock Exchange PBOC official proposes new way of dealing with distressed debt Citigroup Applies for China Securities License China extends tax exemption for overseas investors…
  • MI2 Chart Point: Running the Hedges (11/30/2021) While we all hope that reports of mild flu-like Omicron symptoms are indeed correct, we won’t have any clarity for a week or two. We also shouldn’t forget that markets were beginning to look extremely extended even before the recent wobble. Whether that was a function of Delta ravaging Europe (now a real risk in the US post-Thanksgiving) or conversely, the threat of accelerative policy normalisation is academic. Bottom line, a far more nuanced approach is now required towards risk,…
  • Taper Tantrum Redux? (11/23/2021) In last week’s video, we said that if growth and inflation hadn’t materially slowed by March, we feared the Fed would be forced to repeat June’s surprise pivot and tighten real rates. Fast forward a few days, and it looks like events are developing far faster than we expected with a wave of hawkish comments from various officials.

  • Macro Insiders: In Focus Trade Portfolio (12/1/2021)

    This publication is your ‘go-to’ to view a summary of trade recommendations proposed by Julian and Raoul in their respective In Focus pieces. Each month, we update the performance of these trade recommendations, adding and removing trades as per the advice given in any In Focus publication or Flash Update.

  • Macro Insiders: Deep Dive from Julian – Removing The Punchbowls (11/29/2021) This month, Julian presents his macro framework based on his virtual road trip to “visit” many of his institutional clients. A lot of the core views will be familiar to you, foremost among those being his rising. inflation theme. Interspersed within the piece are sections incorporating some of the feedback elicited by the presentation. Combined, the piece helps to guide us into 2022 with a sense of where we are and what could surprise money managers as they prepare their asset allocations for Q1 and beyond.
  • Macro Insiders: In Focus from Raoul – Slowly, Slowly… (11/22/2021) Slowly the bigger-picture weak macro fundamentals are emerging, and clouds are gathering for 2022…

  • Thoughts From The Divide – Taper Talk (12/3/2021) “It’s time… to react” Having only just recently revealed the Fed’s own definition of the word transitory, the Fed is now hanging up the word’s spurs. Speaking to Congress, Powell attempted to distance the Fed from the word, arguing that “it’s probably a good time to retire that word and try to explain more clearly […]
  • Thoughts From The Divide – The Devil You Know (11/26/2021) If the old adage about the devil you know is true, and there is indeed comfort to be found in the familiar, this last week was, for the most part, a potential source of solace. The tightness of the labor market continues, with Initial Claims hitting the lowest weekly number in more than 50 years […]
  • Thoughts From The Divide – Striking the Iron (11/19/2021) “To attain a better standard of living” Amid high levels of quits and “excess retirements”, it is clear that the labor market is currently running hot. And just as companies have taken rip-roaring demand as an opportunity to raise prices (case in point, Tyson’s latest earnings), so too do workers appear to be, if you’ll […]