MI2 Research Portal
- MI2 Trader: EZ Inflation and Bund –
As we discussed in our latest video, given our US inflation/growth views, it is very difficult to be structural Treasury bulls. However, in the last nine months, losses in Treasuries have rivalled those at the beginning of the Volker era in 1980. Therefore, there is no question that some of this is in the price. This, in turn, led us to expect a time and price consolidation in the long end of the US curve. Such a move would allow the RSI on our futures chart to recover before it got slapped again this summer by the tail end of the inflation hurricane!
- MI2 Trader: A Short Sterling Short –
In January, we highlighted the inconsistency of US interest rate futures pricing and suggested shorting ED11s (“MI2 Trader: Eurodollars Timber?” 12th Jan). At the time, the logic seemed pretty straightforward: Ultra-accommodative monetary policy and multiple large fiscal packages. These, together with vaccination programs and perhaps the largest ever inventory cycle, seemed likely to unleash the greatest wave of aggregate demand since WWII. The icing on the cake was that it was set to run smack bang into bottlenecks in global supply chains, which would turbocharge the inflationary cycle, testing both markets and the Fed.
- MI2 Framework: Inflation and Correlation –
- The current macro backdrop looks more and more like the late 1960s
- Policymakers believe inflation is contained, but markets are rightly worried
- This is beginning to show in the correlation between bond and equity prices
- If current pricing is sustained, it would mark a profound change for markets
- Japan Update: Kuroda: COVID Continues to Pose Large Downside Risks to the Economy –
- Kuroda: COVID Continues to Pose Large Downside Risks to the Economy
- February Machinery Orders Fall 8.5%
- METI Seeks More Efficient Nuke Inspections
- No Confidence Motion, Diet Dissolution Likely in June
- Japan Update: DRAM Prices Higher, Auto Shares Sold as Semiconductor Shortage Widens –
- DRAM Prices Higher, Auto Shares Sold as Semiconductor Shortage Worsens
- Demand for Office Space Weakens, Rents Fall
- Not Enough Shares
- Japan Update: FSA, BoJ to Inspect Japanese Financial Institutions in Wake of Archegos Losses –
- FSA, BoJ to Inspect Japanese Financial Institutions in Wake of Archegos Losses
- BoJ Assets Grow 20% During Pandemic
- Junko Nakagawa Confirmed to Join BoJ Board
- Suga Seeks Greater Cooperation Between Maritime SDF and Coast Guard
- Macro Insiders: In Focus from Julian “Of Egos & Accidents” –
First GameStop, now Greensill and Archegos. The early fissures in market structure are beginning to appear. But Bear Stearns (2007) tells you things take time. Emblematic they may be, but FOMO remains the dominant factor in a financially repressed world of loose fiscal and monetary policy. With re-opening on the horizon, Risk Management holds the key.
- Macro Insiders: Insiders Talk with Julian and Raoul –
Please see the latest Macro Insiders talk:
- Macro Insiders: In Focus Trade Portfolio – April 1st, 2021 –
This publication is your ‘go-to’ to view a summary of trade recommendations proposed by Julian and Raoul in their respective In Focus pieces. Each month, we update the performance of these trade recommendations, adding and removing trades as per the advice given in any In Focus publication or Flash Update.
- Powell’s Patience and Policy Review – “As long as it takes” Jerome Powell was back on the mic this week in his official capacity, with the Fed concluding its March meeting. The FOMC decided to keep rates the same and demurred on the question of the SLR (only to announce today that the exemption would be allowed to expire at the […]
- Inflation, Swimming Pools and Drunk Walks – This week was once again a whirlwind of policy and data with inflation and yields in the epicenter. The NFIB’s survey of small businesses showed the highest number of businesses reporting higher prices since 2008 and their commentary affirmed that “low inventories and solid sales are expected to present more opportunities to raise prices”. However, […]
- Dual Mandate – “Still a long way from our goals” With bond yields continuing to rise and equities wobbling, all eyes were once again on Jerome Powell this week. A week after 10-year Treasury yields rose to the highest levels since the beginning of 2020, Powell spoke at a Wall Street Journal Jobs Summit and addressed many of […]