MI2 Research Portal
Latest Publications
- MI2 Trader: Gold, Gold Miners, and Silver –
Since enthusiasm for precious metals peaked last August, we have seen an extended period of price consolidation and position reduction, especially in gold. Indeed, the only stand out trade has been in platinum, which fits well with the global “greening” infrastructure story. However, our sense is that the dynamics for precious metals are turning more favourable on numerous levels.
- ISM: The Devil’s in the Details –
- The drop in the headline Manufacturing ISM Index suggests activity has peaked
- But in reality, the weakness is a function of input shortages, not weak demand
- Customer inventory and order backlogs suggest demand will remain robust into 2022
- Wages and input costs are a real problem. To offset margin pressures, prices must rise
- MI2 Chart Point: Momentum in May –
As we discussed in our video, in broad terms, we aren’t bearish risk (“Policymakers are from Mars, Markets are from Venus” 1st April). Indeed, those of you who chose to receive our Macro Insider product will see that our portfolio of trade ideas is bullish overall. However, one thing has kept us awake at night, and that’s US stocks. In particular, the momentum/growth names that so dominate the US indexes. That these names utterly outperformed during CV-19 is understandable. But somewhat paradoxically, they have continued to perform in the reflationary recovery. Some of this reflected investors’ ability to deploy spare cash into value/cyclicals without needing to sell winners. Yet, in the last week, weakness in mega-caps such as MSFT and APPL has piqued our attention. Add in the sudden and somewhat inexplicable breakdown of meme names, and we are worried that a “nice” rotation could be turning “nasty”.
- Japan Update: State of Emergency Extended to May 31, New Vaccines to be Approved –
- State of Emergency Extended to May 31, New Vaccines to be Approved
- March Wages Rise 0.2%
- Domestic Silicon Production to Rise 5%
- Recycled Cardboard Prices Rise for First Time Since 2018
- AGC (5201) Q1 Profit Doubles on Higher PVC Prices
- Japan Update: Suga Expected to Extend COVID Lockdown, Kono Calls for Workplace Vaccinations –
- Suga Expected to Extend COVID Lockdown, Kono Calls for Workplace Vaccinations
- TSMC Will Boost Semiconductor Production 30%, US Asks for Preference
- Number of Children Aged 15 and Younger Down for 40th Consecutive Year
- US Stance on Taiwan Defense to Remain “Strategically Ambiguous”
- Japan Update: Japanese Semiconductor Materials Makers Boost Production Amid Shortage –
- Japanese Semiconductor Materials Makers Boost Production Amid Shortage
- Japan Plans Special Military Transport Unit for Remote Island Defense
- Government to Support Hydrogen, Ammonia Production
- Osaka to Begin Mass Vaccinations May 24
- Former Prime Minister Abe Backs Suga in LDP Race
- Macro Insiders – In Focus Trade Portfolio –
This publication is your ‘go-to’ to view a summary of trade recommendations proposed by Julian and Raoul in their respective In Focus pieces. Each month, we update the performance of these trade recommendations, adding and removing trades as per the advice given in any In Focus publication or Flash Update.
- Macro Insiders Deep Dive from Raoul: “The Exponential Age” –
All too often, for reasons both founded in habit (or as behaviouralists would call it, confirmation bias) and lack of imagination, we all tend to look at the world from a linear perspective. On top of that, a tendency to look for mean reversion against a linear trend adds to the feedback loop. In his piece this month, “The Exponential Age”, Raoul challenges this approach which, like most ‘macro’ traders, he has adhered to as long as he can remember.
- Macro Insiders: In Focus from Raoul “Tax – The Inevitable Outcome”. –
When the biggest economic crisis in history hits, the outcomes become predictable – debasement of debt and taxes…
- Fed Pushback – “Supply side will take a little bit of time to adapt” While the FOMC left both rates and its asset purchases unchanged, rolling along with a “business as usual” feel, the post-meeting press conference took on a different tone. Yes, there was some of the usual obsequiousness and questions about whether Powell was going to […]
- More Superlatives and Fed Talk – “All the more impressive” The momentum of the Usual Suspects continues this week, with various measures of inflation and activity hitting new highs. Case in point, the Kansas City Manufacturing Index saw its highest reading on record for both its monthly composite and its index of prices paid for raw materials. This superlative performance was […]
- The Usual Suspects – “Continued optimism about growth” While all may not be quiet on the Western Front, this past week, there is some comfort in the idea that it’s simply the usual suspects. A new equity market entrant is getting an impressive valuation. Elon Musk is tweeting about a meme coin. And inflation is continuing its steady march […]