MI2 Research Portal

Latest Publications

MI2 Trader: SOFR Dis-inversion & Survey Request

Analysis of flow and sentiment evidence is an important part of our “Trader” process. Proper flow and sentiment analysis benefit from careful tracking of surveys...

How the Fed Could Miss Their SEP

The SEP assume a sharp drop in inflation, no recession and a limited rise in unemployment But, unless the Fed drives equities lower, far from...

The Fed: Are the SEP Realistic?

The Fed SEP are inconsistent with low inflation, higher unemployment and yet no recession Our work agrees that inflation is falling. A trend that will...

Beyond the BoJ: Why Japan Matters Again

The market’s focus on this week’s BoJ meeting puts it in danger of missing the bigger picture In terms of Kuroda’s replacement, we believe the...

Thoughts From The Divide – There’s a Chance?

“It is possible”  Back in December, CNBC published “Why everyone thinks a recession is coming in 2023”, explaining that historically, “When inflation picks up and...