MI2 Research Portal

Latest Publications

MI2 Core Research

  • M2, Fiscal and US Inflation (6/8/2021) – This week should mark the high on US CPI, albeit at close to 6% YoY vs 4.7% forecastHowever, our concern is the longer-term consequences of recent M2 and fiscal largessIn the last 55 years, we haven’t seen anything close to this degree of combined stimulus As a result, our model suggests that into 2023, the result will be far, far higher core CPI
  • MI2 Chart Point: NFP Taking the Under (6/3/2021) – Comment Internally, we believe that increased talk of Fed tapering is premature and mostly kabuki, designed to hold bond markets in check by talking the talk instead of actually delivering tighter policy. However, feign or not, there is no question that it is weighing on reflation trades. This move accelerated after the blowout ADP data and makes tomorrow’s employment report even more important. Very simply, if we get another substantial number, we suspect that we won’t be the only ones…
  • MI2 Trader: EEM, EWZ & USDBRL (6/2/2021) – The last time we flagged emerging markets was towards the end of last year (“Chart Point: EM Breakout” 5th Nov 2020). Back then, our model (below) suggested a sharp catch-up trade in the EM equities, and currently, it is pushing to new highs…

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Japan Update

  • Japan Update: May Corporate (Wholesale) Price Index Up 4.9% (6/11/2021) –
    • May Corporate (Wholesale) Price Index Up 4.9%
    • JNTO Chief Targets 60 Million Tourist Arrivals by 2030
    • Tokyo Area Ready-Mix Concrete Shipments Up 23% in May
    • TSMC May Build Semiconductor Plant in Kumamoto
    • Semiconductor Shortage Hits Retailer Inventories
  • Japan Update: May Economy Watcher’s Index Falls (6/9/2021) –
    • May Economy Watcher’s Index Falls
    • May Machine Tool Orders Up 140%
    • September Lower House Election Likely
    • Suga: Everyone Who Wants a COVID Vaccine Will Have it by November
  • Japan Update: April Consumption Up 13.0% (6/7/2021) –
    • April Consumption Up 13.0%
    • One in Three Companies Hike FY 2021 Dividends
    • New City Bank Lending Falls for First Time Since March 2018
    • Equities Rise as Vaccination Rate Tops 10%
    • Murata Manufacturing (6981) Sees Record Profits in FY 2021
    • Inflation Watch: Fisheries Report Worst Catch Since 1950
    • The Cost of Being Green: JFE Holdings (5411) to Begin Regular Scrap Purchases

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Macro Insiders

  • Macro Insiders: Insider Talks with Julian and Raoul (6/9/2021) –

    Here is the latest Insider Talks video with Julian and Raoul:

  • Macro Insiders – In Focus Trade Portfolio (6/1/2021) –

    This publication is your ‘go-to’ to view a summary of trade recommendations proposed by Julian and Raoul in their respective In Focus pieces. Each month, we update the performance of these trade recommendations, adding and removing trades as per the advice given in any In Focus publication or Flash Update.

  • Macro Insiders: Deep Dive from Julian – “Of Mars and Venus” (5/28/2021) –

    As winter gave way to spring, Julian was on the virtual ‘road’ presenting his views to his institutional clients. In the process he gained a lot of invaluable feedback which he wants to share with MI clients. This should to give you both a better idea of his big picture views and also how institutional investors’ views are evolving in response to the changing macro landscape.

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Thoughts From The Divide

  • Constrained Growth, Again (6/4/2021) – Your do not have permission to view this content. Please login to your account or reach out to support@mi2partners.com with any questions or concerns. Login
  • PCE and Policy Moves (5/28/2021) – Your do not have permission to view this content. Please login to your account or reach out to support@mi2partners.com with any questions or concerns. Login
  • Global Problems and Housing’s Temperature (5/21/2021) – Your do not have permission to view this content. Please login to your account or reach out to support@mi2partners.com with any questions or concerns. Login

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