MI2 Research Portal

Latest Publications

  • MI2: China Update (9/15/2021) Over the last few years, we have released several pieces focusing on the US-China bilateral relationship. The purpose of these reports was to provide a framework or roadmap for this critical geopolitical and economic relationship. However, as discussed in the last piece, recent developments have been so utterly transformative that we have decided to create a new publication, the “China Update”. (“US-China: A Pseudo-Cold War”). As the name suggests, this is similar in style to our Japan Update, i.e., designed…
  • MI2 Trader: Buying DAX Vol (9/13/2021) Comment A couple of months ago, we flagged our concerns regarding the DAX (“MI2 Trader: DAX Bad Price Action” 19th July). As it turned out, our fears were premature, and we didn’t get any accelerative weakness. The good news is that meant we didn’t add to our initial small short. The bad news is that our concerns haven’t gone away. In fact, they continue to build and not just regarding German stocks (“MI2 Chart Point: Is Risk Running Out of…
  • MI2 Chart Point: Bonds – Watch the Price Action (9/7/2021) Comment At face value, Friday’s NFP was mana from heaven for the FOMC doves, who want to delay tapering and policy normalisation. As such, it should have been a classic example of Bad = Good, i.e., poor economic data being bullish for risk assets. Yet, perversely, the dollar is up today, commodities are weaker, and equities are nonplussed. That suggests something else is at play, and if we look around, the move in Treasuries has piqued our attention. The jump…

  • Japan Update: Japanese Auto Makers Shift to “Must Have on Hand” Inventory Management (9/15/2021)
    • Japanese Auto Makers Shift to “Must Have on Hand” Inventory Management
    • Ishiba Drops Out of LDP Race, Throws Support to Kono
    • July Machinery Orders Rise 0.9%
    • Asian Natural Gas Prices Continue Higher
    • Ferrosilicon Prices Hit 41-Year High
    • Steel Construction Materials Prices Higher
    • Global Investment in Upstream SPE to Near US$100 Billion in 2022
    • Nikkei 225 Index Ends Longest Winning Streak Since 1988
  • Japan Update: August Import Prices Hit Record (9/13/2021)
    • August Import Prices Hit Record
    • Construction Gets More Competitive
    • August Ship Export Orders Double
    • Ishihara Sangyo (4028) Raises Titanium Dioxide Export Prices
    • August Large Lot DRAM Prices Fall
    • COVID Vaccination Program Should be Complete by November
    • Candidates Scramble for Support in LDP Election
    • RCEP to Kick Off in January 2022
  • Japan Update: COVID Restrictions Extended Through September 30 (9/10/2021)
    • COVID Restrictions Extended Through September 30
    • April-June Revised GDP Up 1.9%
    • COVID Pushes August Economy Watcher’s Index Lower
    • Toyota Motor (7203) Cuts October Global Production Plan by 40%
    • July Consumption Up 0.7%, Cash Wages Rise 1.0%
    • Kohno Enters LDP Race, Pushes “Safe Nuclear Power”
    • Ground Self-Defense Force to Hold Biggest Exercise Since 1991

  • Macro Insiders: In Focus from Julian – Coiled (9/14/2021)

    Gigantic buying of equities; budget deficits off the scale; Central Banks pondering tapering but muddled and indecisive; inflation not just sticky but still rising; politics and geopolitics in flux… but everything stable! Julian’s tempered bullishness is fading fast. Prepare for more volatility in Q4.

  • Macro Insiders: In Focus Trade Portfolio (9/1/2021) This publication is your ‘go-to’ to view a summary of trade recommendations proposed by Julian and Raoul in their respective In Focus pieces. Each month, we update the performance of these trade recommendations, adding and removing trades as per the advice given in any In Focus publication or Flash Update.
  • Macro Insiders: Deep Dive from Raoul – Community Flywheels (8/27/2021) Raoul goes into some detail about the music business which encapsulates both the problems and opportunities of the new digital age before then pulling back the veil on how he sees his own company, Real Vision, benefitting from the network effects of “community.”

  • Thoughts From The Divide – Checking on the Dual Mandate (9/10/2021) “Pervasive resource shortages” Wednesday saw the release of the Fed’s Beige Book, and though “growth downshifted slightly”, the deceleration was chalked up to either “concerns due to the rise of the Delta variant” (which, if cases are any indication, may be spreading less rapidly) or growth being hindered by “supply disruptions and labor shortages, as opposed to softening […]
  • Thoughts From The Divide – China Shifts (9/3/2021) “Profound transformation” While US-China relations may not be splashed across headlines quite as much as they were during the heyday of Trump’s tariffs and trade restrictions, there has been a recent uptick in coverage of the Middle Kingdom. A few news items, such as this one on the “fabrication” of Chinese economic data, come as no surprise (see […]
  • Thoughts From The Divide – Powell Counterpoints (8/27/2021) “Time will tell” Today, at the Jackson Hole conference, Jerome Powell gave a speech on “Monetary Policy in the Time of COVID”. In addition to his evaluation of the employment outlook, Powell offered his assessment on “the path ahead” for inflation, citing five different “factors” as reasons to believe that the “elevated readings are likely […]