MI2 Blog

MI2 Chart Point: Bonds

A couple of weeks ago, we explained that a number of clients had asked if now was the right time to buy fixed income. The result was a piece in which we outlined that while we believed the bull market of the last 40 years was over, for the first time in over two years, the macro backdrop was becoming increasingly bond friendly (“Are Bond Dynamics Finally Changing?” 26th Oct).

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Japan Update: Foreign Exchange Reserves Drop in October

  • Foreign Exchange Reserves Drop in October
  • Gas and Electric Utility Subsidies to Drop by Half in September
  • Real Wages Fall by 1.7% in July-September Quarter, Keidanren Calls for Base Pay Hikes
  • Leading, Concurrent Index of Economic Activity Fall in September
  • Rebar Construction Shapes Price Hikes Continue
  • Japan Faces Potential Housing Loan Crisis
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MI2 Chart Point: Rolling Equity Capitulation

Since the fourth quarter of last year, when we started to turn bearish, we’d be the first to admit that trading this move has been utterly brutal. However, with our view on inflation, what has helped us navigate the big picture has been our unerring belief that parallels between the current US equity market and the dot.com bubble were eerily similar.

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Luke Gromen on Why It’s Best to “Be Long Energy” Right Now

Luke Gromen, the founder and president of Forest for the Trees, is a highly respected voice in the global macroeconomic research community. Luke joins Harry Melandri to explain why he’s long energy. He also talks about major shifts in global trade and volatility in the sovereign debt market on another captivating episode of The Next Big Trade.

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Macro Insiders: In Focus Trade Portfolio – November 2022

This publication is your ‘go-to’ to view a summary of trade recommendations proposed by Julian and Raoul in their respective In Focus pieces. Each month, we update the performance of these trade recommendations, adding and removing trades as per the advice given in any In Focus publication or Flash Update.

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MI2 Chart Point: Renko Watch

When we first introduced most of you to Renko charts a couple of years ago (“MI2 Chart Point: Cutting Out the Noise” 14th Dec 2020), we said that while no charting technique is infallible, “What is particularly attractive is how in volatile markets, Renko brings complete clarity to trends and, most significantly, reversals.” Hence, heading into the Fed with most markets having been in strong trends for months, we wanted to run through the key charts. The intention is to identify the markets that are closest to reversals and highlight key levels.

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MI2 Chart Point: ISM Through Key Levels

Last week, we highlighted how numerous factors were finally moving in favour of buying US fixed income (“Are Bond Dynamics Finally Changing?” 26th Oct). Indeed, our only reservation remained our concerns related to 30-year JGBs and the impact of higher inflation on European long ends. The good news is that judging from the price action, our worst-case scenario has been averted. That brings us back to US dynamics and, in particular, ISM.

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