MI2 Blog

Dan Rasmussen on When It’s Time for Small-Value Stocks

Which economic indicator is the most reliable for confirming we’re in a crisis? According to Verdad Capital founder and portfolio manager Dan Rasmussen, it’s high-yield spreads. Identifying the key relationships across the globe isn’t hard. Formulating an approach that surfaces alpha when spreads spike is where it gets difficult. Per Rasmussen, the best way to act in such environments is through small-value equities. Rasmussen explains why it makes sense and how to time the trade in a captivating episode of The Next Big Trade.

Read More »

MI2 Chart Point: Swedish Canary

Listening to Madam Lagarde this morning, we were struck by the fact that finally, but without explicitly using the word, the ECB economic outlook is shifting inexorably towards stagflation. Hence the reference to broadening price pressures and rising wages, together with growth risks that are slated to the downside.

Read More »

Are Bond Dynamics Finally Changing?

  • Our models suggest that Treasuries are historically extended and oversold 
  • The Fed’s pursuit of opportunistic disinflation could also support the long end 
  • While on the macro side, housing and the PMIs are looking very worrying 
  • We’d love to buy 30yr USTs but are watching fungibility and price action
Read More »

MI2 China Update: Xi Stacks Inner Circle With Loyalists 

  • The US makes a further attempt to restrict Chinese semiconductor development Xi Stacks Inner Circle With Loyalists
  • Chinese Memory Maker YMTC Asks American Employees to Leave
  • ‘No separate deals with China’: EU leaders speak out against Scholz trip to Beijing
  • Tesla cuts prices in China by up to 9% amid softening demand
  • US charges alleged Chinese spies in telecoms probe case
Read More »

Gain valuable trading insights from our research

Inflation, Bonds & Insanity

From Infinite Horizons to the Consequences of Woke

Macro Insiders