MI2 Blog

Harry Melandri Reflects on a Remarkable Journey

This week’s special episode of The Next Big Trade draws from Harry Melandri’s appearance on My Life in 4 Trades, Real Vision’s uniquely introspective podcast where the brightest minds in finance share the two best and two worst trades of their careers. Here, Harry shares with Maggie Lake remarkable stories from his time at UBS, Deutsche Bank, and the Bank of England, highlighting the lessons he’s learned along the way.

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MI2 Chart Point: Watching JGBs

If the stock market’s price action is any indication, the collapse of Liz Truss’s irresponsible fiscal splurge marks the end of the global bond market’s threat to equities. Add in talk of the BoE ending QT or US Treasury YCC (see below), and it is hardly surprising that we are off to the races. Unfortunately, we can’t help thinking it’s premature to blow all clear on global yields.

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Japan Update: USDJPY Flirts With 147, Intervention on Hold

  • USDJPY Flirts With 147, Intervention on Hold
  • Weak 30-Year JGB Auction Pushes Long End Higher
  • August Current Account Surplus Drops 96.1%
  • September Economy Watcher’s Index Rises
  • August Machinery Orders Decline 5.8%
  • September Machine Tool Orders Get Boost from Chicago Show
  • Japan’s Corporate Cash Hoard Tops ¥140 Trillion
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MI2 Chart Point: Make or Break

As we feared, at the end of last week, Fed Governor Chris Waller (determined to kill a repeat of the summer’s easing of financial conditions) drove home a very hawkish message (“Fed: Is it All Over?” 5th Oct). As a result, while there are signs of FOMC cohesion cracking, most of his peers held this line, and once you added in a solid NFP, it was enough to banish talk of a pivot. This has left both bond and equity markets in a very precarious position.

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