MI2 Chart Point: Peak Dollar?

As you know, we are structural dollar bears because we believe that ultimately when the next crisis brings the Fed face to face with the inability to support stocks, bonds, and the currency, they will logically sacrifice the dollar (“The Dollar: Triffin’s Dilemma and the Impossible Trinity” 24th Mar 2021). We also believe that a record US Current Account deficit, funded by unhedged foreign inflows into US stocks, has created a ticking bomb at the heart of US markets, which, if triggered, could force massive flows out of the dollar (“Long US Stocks and $. The End of US Exceptionalism” 7th Feb). However, up until now, fading dollar strength has been a fruitless task (“MI2 Trader: Selling the Dollar” 12th Jan). In fact, even we capitulated, and in our last FX trade, we actually bought USDCNY (“MI2 Trader: CNH” 14th Mar). However, recent price dynamics suggest things could be changing.

To access this content, clients or trials must log in. To inquire about access, please contact us.

Please note: If you are a client or trial who just created your account and still do not have access, please wait up to 24 hours for your access to activate.