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MI2 Chart Point: Some Quick Thoughts

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Predictably, fixed income’s impressive rally over the last couple of months has been followed by a deluge of media articles discussing the risks of slowing growth and peaking inflation. But while they have some merit, they are occurring after the event and are the journalistic equivalent of ambulance chasing. Yes, there is no question that the rate of acceleration in some key economic metrics is peaking (“Inflation: A Shift in the Narrative” 28th May). Economies don’t do ‘ to infinity and beyond’, and PMIs don’t flatline at 60! There is also no doubt that some areas of the economy face headwinds (“US Housing: Pumped Up and Vulnerable” 7th July). However, just because the derivative of growth slows to a more sustainable rate, it doesn’t mean that the sky is falling. 

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