Core Research

Our core product that pulls together and explains current global macroeconomic markets. Our work provides actionable insight into the global economy. We are heavy graphics users to illustrate concepts and, in some cases, show the direction of a trend. The MI2 Trader / Chart Point pieces are trade focused complements to MI2 Reports written with a call to action based on current market activity. This piece seeks to take the macroeconomic framework and shed light on certain assets.

MI2 Chart Point – Breakouts

9th March 2017 As always, in Chart Point we like to point out what we think are interesting charts. Below are two we thought worth highlighting.  As we mentioned yesterday (“MI2 Chart Point: Reflation Risks”) the Fed’s apparent newfound hawkishness (we are ultimately sceptical) and willingness to finally get ahead of the inflation story is […]

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MI2 Chart Point – Reflation Risk?

8nd March 2017 As we’ve discussed, with the US cyclical growth/inflation story approaching a peak, we are in the “final innings of the bearish Treasury trade” (“MI2 Chart Point: ISM Manufacturing” 28th February). However, in the last 48 hours US rates have climbed along the entire curve and are threatening the top of the range […]

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MI2 Chart Point: ISM Manufacturing Peak?

28th February 2017 In the next couple of days, you will receive a video setting out our macro views for the next quarter. One of the key themes is that while the growth dynamics underlying economies on both side of the Atlantic look solid core inflation pressure is building. We are approaching the cyclical peak […]

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Monthly February 2017: Approaching the Cycle Highs?

14th February 2017 Macro The “speed” of US growth and headline inflation are approaching highs p.2Despite higher animal spirits our base case is we face a Trump “gap” after peaking p.3Eurozone growth outlook is very robust especially as exports accelerate p.4Eurozone inflation will also peak soon but remain uncomfortably high for Draghi p.5Markets In US […]

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MI2 Chart Point – US Breakevens

7th February 2017 Since we first flagged our concerns about growing inflationary pressures in our 2016 outlook (“Changing Relationships” 15th December, 2015), one of our favourite plays has been US breakevens. We continued to push this trade again last summer and through the autumn. Even now our work suggests that fundamentally there remains 30bps of […]

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JGBs: What to Watch and Why They Matter

7th February 2017 Summary You don’t have to trade JGBs to need to be aware of the potential disruption they can causeJGB futures are misleading as BOJ Yield Curve Control (YCC) reaches out to 10 yearsFuture BOJ meetings have the potential for left field disruption. Every meeting is now liveAny change to YCC will have […]

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MI2 Chart Point – European Wobbles

6th February 2017 In the last 24 hours, the nature of the weakness in European fixed income has changed somewhat dramatically. No longer is the move being driven by accelerative growth/inflation, but increased political concerns. To emphasise the “risk-off” nature of the move, we are also seeing some Euro weakness along with US Treasury and […]

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Europe Stocks: 2 Quick Charts

30th January 2017 In late 2014, as market speculation built that the ECB was finally ready to join its peers and launch QE, investors hoping to repeat the windfall profits they’d made off the similar moves by the Fed as well as the BoJ, poured cash into European stocks. The ensuing rally was helped by […]

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MI2 Trader – Europe Inflation

27th January 2017 Comment Over the past year, as the global reflation cycle has rippled through markets, we have steadily shifted our focus between various regions and asset places. In last few months, this has increasingly concentrated our attentions on Europe, where the under Draghi’s leadership ECB policy has been irresponsible and, above all else, […]

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The US Economy: Jumping the “Gap”

24th January 2017 Summary Politics and tighter financial conditions suggests a “Gap” in economic momentum into Q4However, the election has triggered a surge in confidence especially among businessesWe suspect this is a knee jerk reaction that doesn’t immediately generate concrete activityThere are some data points to watch and if they accelerate expect inflation to followLast […]

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