Macro Insiders

This publication is your ‘go-to’ to view a summary of trade recommendations proposed by Julian and Raoul in their respective In Focus pieces. Each month, we update the performance of these trade recommendations, adding and removing trades as per the advice given in any In Focus publication or Flash Update.

According to the National Association of Homebuilders, housing’s contribution to GDP generally averages in the 15-18% range and occurs in two basic ways: Residential Investment (3-5%) and Consumption Spending on Housing Services (12-13%) which includes rents and utilities paid by renters and the statistical fiction that is the owners’ imputed rents. This last one is going to be front and centre of the inflation debate over the next six to nine months as owner equivalent rent is incorporated into CPI. So now is a good time to familiarise yourself with it as we watch the Fed’s intellectual acrobatics to fob us off with their transitory inflation dogma.

Raoul has been writing about the impending slowdown for a few months. It is now upon us, and opportunity lies ahead…

… Frustrating. Notwithstanding a picture of positive growth, sticky inflation and easing credit conditions, positioning has got ahead of the game. Bonds have rallied largely on a counterintuitive dearth of supply and an imperative of duration-matching by underweight asset allocators. What does it mean, and should we head for the beach?

This publication is your ‘go-to’ to view a summary of trade recommendations proposed by Julian and Raoul in their respective In Focus pieces. Each month, we update the performance of these trade recommendations, adding and removing trades as per the advice given in any In Focus publication or Flash Update.

The “Build Back Better” meme continues to set the political weather. Both the climate emergency and social inequalities are imperatives where it is now (at least In the post-Trump era) easy to coalesce. What’s not to like? And what can’t be fixed by chucking money from the Magic Money Tree at it?

The Unreliable Boyfriend: a phrase initially coined for Mark Carney at the Bank of England; Jay Powell has joined the club. JP has previous form in flip-flopping (2018/19). This time he has made a song and dance about Average Inflation Targeting and Outcome-based policy, only to flip and cave at the first signs of inflation that he was insisting was transitory. Back to data dependency then. What to think, what to do?

Please see the latest Macro Insiders release, an In Focus from Julian:

Here is the latest Insider Talks video with Julian and Raoul:

This publication is your ‘go-to’ to view a summary of trade recommendations proposed by Julian and Raoul in their respective In Focus pieces. Each month, we update the performance of these trade recommendations, adding and removing trades as per the advice given in any In Focus publication or Flash Update.