Thoughts from the Divide

“High inflation exacts a toll” Though “there is absolutely no historical evidence that Marie-Antoinette ever said”, “Let them eat cake” (or rather, its French equivalent), the association has stuck, and the phrase is now used to indicate someone’s “obliviousness to the conditions and daily lives of ordinary people”. As prices continue to take a toll […]

“Convey a strong commitment” While the Fed may constantly talk about its commitment and resolve, just like those of us with New Year’s resolutions, the real test comes when distractions or alternatives pull in another direction. Having already announced a speeding up of the tapering schedule during the December meeting, the release of the minutes […]

With 2021 in the books, it’s time to look back on the major themes that we’ve covered over the last year, and to say it was a “year of flux” is a gross understatement. It has been a year of eye-watering, nose-bleeding readings across several metrics, from PPI to used car prices, from inflation expectations […]

“We decided to speed up the reduction in our asset purchases Just in time for Christmas and the New Year, the Fed is playing the part of the Grinch. While the Dr. Seuss character stole Christmas paraphernalia from the Whos of Whoville (including one J.P.Who…?), the Fed is dialing back the stimulative juice. In addition […]

“While this is substantial, it is far from unprecedented” It’s once again the time of the month where markets and policymakers digest the latest CPI readings. That both Core and Headline CPI came in today roughly in line with expectations (at 4.9% and 6.8%, respectively) is likely some relief to both Fed officials and politicians […]

“It’s time… to react” Having only just recently revealed the Fed’s own definition of the word transitory, the Fed is now hanging up the word’s spurs. Speaking to Congress, Powell attempted to distance the Fed from the word, arguing that “it’s probably a good time to retire that word and try to explain more clearly […]

If the old adage about the devil you know is true, and there is indeed comfort to be found in the familiar, this last week was, for the most part, a potential source of solace. The tightness of the labor market continues, with Initial Claims hitting the lowest weekly number in more than 50 years […]

“To attain a better standard of living” Amid high levels of quits and “excess retirements”, it is clear that the labor market is currently running hot. And just as companies have taken rip-roaring demand as an opportunity to raise prices (case in point, Tyson’s latest earnings), so too do workers appear to be, if you’ll […]

“Grin and bear it” Considering the grilling Powell got last week for “the difficulties that inflation poses for individuals… especially those with limited means”, he should consider himself lucky that the press conference wasn’t after this weeks’ PPI and CPI releases. Both measures hit multi-decade highs, with Headline CPI’s 6.2% reading making it the highest […]

“It means different things to different people” Bill Clinton is perhaps the poster child of definitional sophistry, having famously pondered “what the meaning of the word is is”. The Fed hadn’t been quite so coy with the word transitory, but this week, in the post-FOMC press conference, Jerome Powell finally gave a full definition. Though […]