Thoughts from the Divide

… until they get punched in the mouth  If even the best laid plans can go awry, following plans when the going gets tough can add an extra layer of difficulty. Iron Mike cut to this point in his famous quote above, and his statement about boxers appears to apply just as well to markets […]

“There is a real risk of energy shortages” This week’s title comes from Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises, or the sparknotes for those short on time, and is offered in the context of going bankrupt. While there doesn’t yet appear to be much of that going on (though the latest crypto debacle has brought up […]

“No sign of a peak in inflation yet for households”  As the Fed shifted away from parroting the idea that inflation would be transitory, it held on to the idea that while inflation was persistent, it would soon peak and return to normal levels. It now appears that whatever peak they saw in the distance […]

“Pause hiring for as long as this macro-environment requires”  While we had said, tongue in cheek, that the Fed’s new favorite word was “expeditiously”, it may instead, unfortunately, be “pain”. A case in point is Loretta Mester’s recent speech. During her talk Thursday, the Cleveland Fed president remarked that “labor markets are very tight” and, […]

“No great cause for celebration”  As food and energy supply problems continue, policymakers continue to try to find ways to provide their constituents with some relief. While many of the policy decisions may be a bit like bailing with a thimble, it’s becoming clear that policymakers are willing to crack a few eggs to make […]

“Will… include some pain”  In a relatively brief interview from last week, Jerome Powell made a number of statements that seemed to put markets and market spectators on edge. Though he successfully dodged a question on the prospect of a 75-basis point hike, he not only admitted that it would “have been better for us […]

“Aggravating factors”  This week’s title is apropos of both the world of crypto (where a “stablecoin” losing its peg has had a “cascading effect”) and the equity market (where declining stocks have sent CNN’s Fear & Greed Index to 52-week lows). However, unfortunately, the title also applies to global food and energy, which continue to run afoul.  […]

“As quickly and effectively as we can”  If “transitory” was the previous buzzword du jour, the new term appears to be “expeditiously”, which Chairman Powell used six times during Wednesday’s post-FOMC presser in the context of both raising rates and bringing down inflation. As to the former, Chair Powell and company voted unanimously to raise the target range for […]

“… absence of payments in roubles  While there’s been continuing hem and haw, back and forth on the part of both Europe and Russia about the former paying for the latter’s natural gas in rubles (discussed here), things appear to be coming to a head. Poland and Bulgaria have seen their gas supplies halted this week, a move […]

“Another new record high”  Over the last few months, there have been continuing hopes of “cooling” in the housing market, which this week came in the form of recent data from Redfin. Covering a variety of indicators, the company’s report noted that there are signs of faltering demand, including a reduction in Google searches, a […]