Thoughts from the Divide

Our free, weekly newsletter that shares what our Research Team is reading to refine their views on current, influential macroeconomic topics. The newsletter offers brief synopses on articles of interest from a wide range of media outlets, accompanied by charts.

Thoughts From The Divide – Phillips Curve Conundrum

This last week saw the release of a smorgasbord of employment data, from Average Hourly Earnings and Labor Force Participation to Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment, whose release prompted Fed member Neel Kashkari to tweet, tongue in cheek: We were at maximum employment. We are now at maximumer employment. However, as Lael Brainard noted in a […]

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Thoughts From The Divide – Markit PMIs

In the February 20th edition of TFTD, we highlighted the Philly Fed and Empire Fed manufacturing numbers, looking at shared and underlying dynamics to discern what may be coming down the pipe. This past week, the publishing of Markit’s Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs for a whole host of countries gave us a similar opportunity to compare and contrast, to dig into the […]

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Thoughts From The Divide – Fed Speak(s)

While Jerome Powell kept both policy wonks and market participants glued to their screens/terminals/televisions today in the semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, his appearance is in conjunction with the official written Monetary Policy Report, a treasure trove of data and a key look into not only how the Fed thinks, but the sorts of inputs they use in their […]

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Thoughts From The Divide – BoJ Personnel

While there’s been much ado about the changing of the guard at the Fed, especially considering the tumultuous day in the market that greeted Jerome Powell on his first day in office, there are potential “changes” coming to the BoJ, as outlined in a recent Nikkei article. While all signs point to Kuroda being selected for a second term, two new deputy governors are […]

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Thoughts From The Divide – Volatility

Volatility was back this past week and along with it, the usual litany of finger pointing and sideways glances, trying to figure out who or what caused the selloffs. While there are many hot-takes and quick reads, some of the best writing on volatility comes in long-form. A great place to start is Volatility and […]

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Thoughts From The Divide – Benoît Cœuré

At the Financial Times European Financial Forum last week, ECB member Benoît Cœuré gave a speech titled “What yield curves are telling us” hoping to assure investors that “the flattening of the US yield curve is unlikely to signal a looming depression” and further concludes that in the euro area “we see no such inflation risks at the current juncture. […]

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Thoughts From The Divide – All things Fed & ECB Purchases

All Things Fed It’s amazing how refreshingly honest Fed officials can be when they are approaching or have just retired! The classic was when Dallas Fed Chairman Richard Fisher admitted that for the academic veneer they used in its justification, the real aim of QE was boosting stocks. Now, with retirement looming sometime this year, […]

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