The big news item of the week was the FOMC meeting, and given the outcome was never seriously in doubt (25 bps, another 25bp probably on the way), the Q&A was considered the main event. It did not disappoint. Powell had a few surprises up his sleeve, including the suggestion that financial conditions had tightened […]

“It is possible”  Back in December, CNBC published “Why everyone thinks a recession is coming in 2023”, explaining that historically, “When inflation picks up and the Fed responds by pushing up interest rates, the economy ultimately caves under the weight of higher interest rates.” Fast forward to the most recent data, and there’s little to […]

“The more stubborn costs” In November of last year, we wrote about how Small Businesses are an indicator species that help us “diagnose the health” of our economic ecosystem. Though we discussed the latest ISM surveys last week to see what they could tell us about the labor market, this week adds another voice to […]

“Back into balance” While there was a variety of data this week, including the Fed minutes (discussed below), much of the headline space was devoted to the latest employment data, and it was notably mixed. November’s JOLTS job openings data beat expectations, coming in at 10.46 million, and had previous months revised higher. December Average […]

“... often go awry” With 2022 drawing to a close, it’s time to look back through the major themes we’ve covered over the year. While European energy turbulence, the wild ride in housing, and the ever-important consumer graced our pages several times, looking over our most-read newsletters, it is clear that 2022 was all about […]

“It may not be enough” Over the last year, we’ve spilled a fair amount of ink covering the European energy situation, from the Calvinball surrounding Nordstream to last week's article highlighting the potential for deindustrialization. While there was a bit of a sigh of relief as Europe passed the recent “stress test” of a cold […]