MI2's Global Macro Summit

September 26-29| Vail, CO

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US Economy: Part II – Housing

  • Historically, US GDP and housing starts/construction have been highly correlated
  • Single-family starts will continue to decline as the inventory of new homes surges
  • Multi-family activity is declining and will accelerate as CRE exposure threatens smaller banks
  • Our housing models are signalling a clear recession and unemployment above 6.5%

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