“The Catalyst for a Powerful Metals Bull Market is in Sight” Tom welcomes back Julian Brigden, co-founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, about the current economic condition referred to as ‘macro purgatory.’ Brigden warns of an impending recession following a tightening cycle, with only an 8-10% chance of a soft landing. He underlines the significance of employment data, specifically unemployment rates, which can precede a recession and could result in significant rises, potentially causing bond markets to rally while equities weaken. The Fed’s failure to meet its stated goals complicates matters as Treasury and Janet Yellen have counteracted their efforts.  Brigden discusses his perspective on inflation trajectory over the last few years and identifies significant factors such as the breakdown of globalization, a resurgence of the cold war, demographic changes, and the impact of COVID-19. He explains that goods inflation is at its second lowest level in 65 years, while core services remain high. If core service inflation does not decrease significantly, it could indicate weakening wages and lead to recessionary signals despite falling inflation rates. The challenges faced by the Fed in making monetary policy decisions due to lagging and imperfect metrics like employment data, GDP, and CPI are also discussed. Julian expresses optimism about precious metals as a potential investment during this economic period. Brigden shares his perspective on investment strategy shifts towards precious metals, emphasizing the significance of recognizing market weakness and the Fed’s response. Julian also mentions the historical trend of investors being fully invested during strong markets, leading to a lack of liquidity during downturns, and discusses potential impacts on bond yields when the Fed inevitably intervenes. Additionally, he touches upon geopolitical risks such as uncertainty surrounding the next U.S. presidency.