As we discussed in our latest video, given our US inflation/growth views, it is very difficult to be structural Treasury bulls. However, in the last nine months, losses in Treasuries have rivalled those at the beginning of the Volker era in 1980. Therefore, there is no question that some of this is in the price. This, in turn, led us to expect a time and price consolidation in the long end of the US curve. Such a move would allow the RSI on our futures chart to recover before it got slapped again this summer by the tail end of the inflation hurricane!
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