Japan Update

Japan Update: Government to Expand Tax Breaks for Companies Paying Higher Wages

Government to Expand Tax Breaks for Companies Paying Higher Wages
Defense Tax Increase to be Postponed Until At Least FY 2026
Most of the Increase in Aggregate Corporate Profits is From the Weaker Yen
Abe Faction Leaders Face Punishment for Money Scandal, Bleak Future for Kishida
It’s Not All Bad News for the LDP
Current Abe Faction Money Scandal Has Precedent in 1980s Recruit Scandal
LDP’s Ishiba Says Kishida Should Resign After FY 2024 Budget Passes

December 11, 2023

Japan Update: A Quick Word on USDJPY

A Quick Word on USDJPY
October Real Wages Fall 2.3%, Real Consumption Declines 2.5%
October Current Account Surplus Tops ¥2.5 Trillion
Revised July-September GDP Down 2.9%
BoJ Buys Fewer JGBs During November

December 8, 2023

Japan Special Report: “Worst Ever” 30-Year JGB Auction Hits Bonds, Equities, Currency

30-Year JGB Auction “Worst Ever”
JGBs Heavily Sold Across All Maturities
Ueda Tells Diet Ending NIRP and Adjusting YCC Will Come into View
Kishida and Ueda Meet Thursday Afternoon
“Bad News is Bad News,” Higher JGB Yields Rock Equities
USDJPY Sold as US-Japan Yield Spread Narrows

December 7, 2023

Japan Update: BoJ’s Himino Latest to Hint at Policy Change

BoJ’s Himino Latest to Hint at Policy Change
JGBs Follow Treasury Yields Lower
BoJ Policy Review: JGB Liquidity Adversely Impacted by QQE, YCC
Position: What Happens After NIRP?
JCM Seeks ¥10,000 Monthly Pay Increase
Japan Will Not Join Powering Past Coal Alliance
Weak Chinese Demand Pushes Asia Benzene Prices Lower
Spot Bulk Carrier Rates Soar as Weather, Drought Idle More Ships

December 6, 2023

Japan Update: BoJ Cuts Size of 10-25 Year Buying Operation

BoJ Cuts Size of 10-25 Year Buying Operation
LDP Continues to Debate Defense Tax Increase
Could BoJ Surprise the Markets This Month?
Loan Rates Hit Eight-Year High

December 4, 2023

Japan Update: Quarterly Corporate Report Shows Record Earnings, Improved Capex

Quarterly Corporate Report Shows Record Earnings, Improved Capex
October Unemployment Falls to 2.5% as Hiring Improves
October Production Index Higher
Rengo Officially Calls for 5%-Plus Wage Hike
Suzuki Urges Companies to Use Excess Cash Flow to Fund Wage Hikes, Capex
Questions Arise Over Abe Faction Fund Raising
DPFP Members Leave to Start New Party, Seek Cooperation with Isshin No Kai
How Will Japan’s Money Market React to Ending NIRP?
Semiconductor Production Equipment Sales to China Hit Record
Price of New Ships Hits Fifteen Year High

December 1, 2023

Japan Update: ¥13.1 Trillion Supplementary Budget Passes

¥13.1 Trillion Supplementary Budget Passes
Annual Bond Expense Expected to Top ¥30 Trillion by FY 2029
Corporate Taxes to be Raised “Over the Medium- to Long-Term”
BoJ’s Adachi: “Hard to End NIRP Until Wages and Prices Enter Virtuous Cycle”
BoJ Had ¥10.5 Trillion Unrealized Loss on JGB Portfolio
Ueda Seeks to Avoid Shocking the Market When NIRP Ends

November 29, 2023

Japan Update: October Core CPI Rises 2.9% as Energy Subsidies Cut

October Core CPI Rises 2.9% as Energy Subsidies Cut
Are Big Companies Standing in the Way of Higher Wages?
Labor Unions Representing Small Company Employees Propose Big Wage Increases
Voters Continue to Shun Kishida
Tokyo Financial Exchange to Establish Market for Loan Receivables

November 27, 2023

Japan Update: BoJ: Is Ueda Softening Up the Market for End to NIRP?

BoJ: Is Ueda Softening Up the Market for End to NIRP?
BoJ: Will the Board Continue to Underestimate Inflation?
BoJ Reduces Size of JGB Buying Operations as Long Yields Fall
Local Tax Revenues Exceed Pre-COVID Levels
LDP Proposes Allowing Export of Used F-15 Engines, Parts

November 22, 2023

Japan Update: Manufacturing Earnings Rebound as Yen Weakens

Manufacturing Earnings Rebound as Yen Weakens
Small Business Manufacturing Workers Demand Big Pay Rise
Loan Spreads Widening at Megabanks
Kishida’s No Good, Awful, Very Bad Day
Central Tokyo Average New Condo Price Tops ¥100 Million
Nikkei 225 Index Hits 33-Year High—Then Retreats

November 20, 2023

Recent Publications

Japan Update: July Economy Watcher’s Index Falls

Ask Me Anything & Summary of Views with Julian Brigden – August 2022

Thoughts From The Divide – Releasing the Hounds

Japan Update: Japanese Electronic Parts Makers Report Higher Inventories

Macro Insiders: In Focus Trade Portfolio – August 2022

MI2 China Update: Pelosi’s Taiwan trip still on, despite China signaling a potential military response

Blog Posts

Japan Update: Apparent Second Wave of Intervention to “Smooth” Yen Weakness

Thoughts From The Divide: If Then

Macro Insiders: In Focus Trade Portfolio – May 2024

Japan Update: How Much Ammo Does the MoF Have to Defend the Yen?